The COVID-19 pandemic

[jeffster]

At this rate we’re only a couple of weeks away from having the most cases ever.

Hard to say what effects the previous changes have, but unless they have a major effect, we're pretty close to guaranteed achieving records, it will take at minimum 2-3 weeks for new policies to start affecting case counts.

This is why we shut down so quickly in March, it's sad to see we've forgotten those lessons.

Different age group being affected this time around. Mostly under 40's, the group that doesn't really give a crap. If there is a bright side, they're less likely to end up in the hospital and less likely to die.

What's not so good: we don't know the affects of this illness longterm.

[plam]

Hard to say what effects the previous changes have, but unless they have a major effect, we're pretty close to guaranteed achieving records, it will take at minimum 2-3 weeks for new policies to start affecting case counts.

This is why we shut down so quickly in March, it's sad to see we've forgotten those lessons.

Different age group being affected this time around. Mostly under 40's, the group that doesn't really give a crap. If there is a bright side, they're less likely to end up in the hospital and less likely to die.

What's not so good: we don't know the affects of this illness longterm.

I read an estimate of 10% of cases being long-haul COVID but no one really knows. The bright side works a bit, but it doesn't protect the older people that they then interact with.

[danbrotherston]

Hard to say what effects the previous changes have, but unless they have a major effect, we're pretty close to guaranteed achieving records, it will take at minimum 2-3 weeks for new policies to start affecting case counts.

This is why we shut down so quickly in March, it's sad to see we've forgotten those lessons.

Different age group being affected this time around. Mostly under 40's, the group that doesn't really give a crap. If there is a bright side, they're less likely to end up in the hospital and less likely to die.

What's not so good: we don't know the affects of this illness longterm.

You know, I've heard this, but while UW's homecoming was apparently non-existent, our Oktoberfest (a distinctly older crowd) is apparently in full swing with full support of pols.

Certainly more young people are being infected this time (although plenty of younger people, including myself (if I may be so immodest) are higher risk, and many low risk younger people will still have a bad time or even die from this virus), but plenty of old folks are acting poorly as well.

That being said it's still ~40% older folks being affected (depending on where you draw the line of course)....we are a community, contrary to the beliefs of some people, it is not possible to simply segregate entire groups from each other. If younger people get sick, older people will also get sick.

[tomh009]

At this rate we’re only a couple of weeks away from having the most cases ever.

We are only a few weeks away from the most active cases ever. What's a bit encouraging is that the new cases as % of actives (see grey line on the chart) has dropped a bit after peaking earlier this month, which likely means that R value has improved a bit -- maybe people are starting to behave better after seeing the big numbers come out a week or two ago?

Let's see where we are a week from now. The infection numbers in Peel, in particular, are terrible, though.

   

[ac3r]

Casinos have reopened across Ontario today, as the province records 700 new cases of Covid-19 cases and expects hospitals to begin to get overwhelmed as modelling predicts us hitting the peak of the second wave in October. Did Doug Ford give up?

[danbrotherston]

I guess we were all wrong, we didn't have weeks before hitting record high cases, we had days.

[panamaniac]

Casinos have reopened across Ontario today, as the province records 700 new cases of Covid-19 cases and expects hospitals to begin to get overwhelmed as modelling predicts us hitting the peak of the second wave in October. Did Doug Ford give up?

How many people are in ICU in Ontario at the moment?  I seem to recall that, before the expansion of capacity, Ontario had about 700 ICU beds.

[ZEBuilder]

Casinos have reopened across Ontario today, as the province records 700 new cases of Covid-19 cases and expects hospitals to begin to get overwhelmed as modelling predicts us hitting the peak of the second wave in October. Did Doug Ford give up?

How many people are in ICU in Ontario at the moment?  I seem to recall that, before the expansion of capacity, Ontario had about 700 ICU beds.

At the moment there's 29 people in the ICU but if we look at other countries we can see how quickly the hospitaly capacity can get overwhelmed. Of those 700 beds not all can be for COVID patients because there are still patients that need the ICU from other issues such as a heartattack or car accidents.

[Bjays93]

I'm not saying there aren't still positive spins on all this, but a couple weeks ago I made a comment about how the lockdowns were all for naught and this is what I meant. 

Obviously yes, there was some good that came out of it and lives were saved, but I personally feel that the economic pain from lockdowns is not worth it, unless you're going to go the Australia, New Zealand route and have strict boarder controls and wait until there is no more community transmission. 

The economy will suffer even without lockdowns too. At this point other than a strict long haul lockdown I dont really know what you should do honestly. We're years away from having effective treatments and cures at the moment. Things aren't going to change for a long while.

[ac3r]

Full report for today if anyone is interested: https://files.ontario.ca/moh-covid-19-re...-09-28.pdf

Indeed, there are only 29 people in the ICU for Covid-19 at the moment. The capacity is about 2000 beds province wide, and they're apparently adding 139 more in October. I'm not sure what the capacity was prior to this, however.

In regards to the rise, epidemiologist Diego Bassani (from The Sick Kids Hospital in Toronto) Tweeted:

Brace yourselves for the tragic escalation in numbers we’ll see this week. Watch the ones responsible for this disaster wait a bit more as they still doubt the inevitable. It was predictable and preventable. I hope the people that enabled what’s to come know the role they played.

[ijmorlan]

Casinos have reopened across Ontario today, as the province records 700 new cases of Covid-19 cases and expects hospitals to begin to get overwhelmed as modelling predicts us hitting the peak of the second wave in October. Did Doug Ford give up?

Casinos? Absolutely insane. They obviously should close until the pandemic is over.

[danbrotherston]

I'm not saying there aren't still positive spins on all this, but a couple weeks ago I made a comment about how the lockdowns were all for naught and this is what I meant. 

Obviously yes, there was some good that came out of it and lives were saved, but I personally feel that the economic pain from lockdowns is not worth it, unless you're going to go the Australia, New Zealand route and have strict boarder controls and wait until there is no more community transmission. 

The economy will suffer even without lockdowns too. At this point other than a strict long haul lockdown I dont really know what you should do honestly. We're years away from having effective treatments and cures at the moment. Things aren't going to change for a long while.

This is categorically false.

It is quite likely a vaccine will be approved this year, and should be rolled out next year. We already have more effective treatments than we did 3 months ago.

But leaving all that aside, I'm curious as to how many lives you feel the economy is worth?

[panamaniac]

There was a weird report the other day about a medical study that suggested that people who have had dengue might have some immunity against covid-19. It's hard not to be sceptical and it's not of much relevance in Canada. It caught my eye, however, as I have had dengue (and nasty it is!).

[danbrotherston]

There was a weird report the other day about a medical study that suggested that people who have had dengue might have some immunity against covid-19.  It's hard not to be sceptical and it's not of much relevance in Canada.  It caught my eye, however, as I have had dengue (and nasty it is!).

Indeed, there has been a ton of new research into diseases at this point. It is interesting because they are still trying to sort out if the TB vaccine has an effect on COVID-19, with the suggestion now that it has an effect on many respiratory diseases.

On another topic however, I am having a great deal of difficulty right now, dealing with people who are arguing that we should just let the disease run it's course because most people who will die are old anyway. I am utterly sick and tired of heinous people who are okay killing people who aren't them, or like them...whether it's people in different countries, people in different age groups, people who are a different colour, or whatever...how is it that people are okay saying such evil things publicly these days.

[Bjays93]

This is categorically false.

It is quite likely a vaccine will be approved this year, and should be rolled out next year. We already have more effective treatments than we did 3 months ago.

But leaving all that aside, I'm curious as to how many lives you feel the economy is worth?

Yes I am aware we have more effective ways of treating it now, but theres still no tried and truth method or medication to help handle covid at this point. I'm sure there will be clinical recommendations by the end of the year, but suggesting we'll have viable vaccines soon if at all is naive. 

IF we were to roll out a vaccine next spring that would be years faster than any prior vaccine rollout, with unknown implications, questions around lasting immunity and a whole range of different strains around the globe. Most people may simply choose not to get it and even if they do it would likely be not adequately tested and it would probably be largely ineffective. 

And to your question. I dont know. I think that's something the whole world is having to come to grips with right now. People are going to die, and what point to we just turn a blind eye, how much do we do to help etc. Ideally I'd like to save as many lives as possible. 

Life is something we shouldn't put a price on imo, but my point was moreso that half assed lockdowns do unnecessary damage to the economy whilst not really changing the long term trajectory of the disease. Either social distance, wear masks and keep everything open and just let what happens happen. Or lockdown until theres no community transmission. As long as community transmission is occurring and untraceable, resurgence will be inevitable when things open back up.