The COVID-19 pandemic

[panamaniac]

Just a note on vaccine efficacy. This time last year we didn't even know that we would have vaccines and were hoping for a vaccine with 50% efficacy. Also, the early super-high numbers are probably not reflective of long-term performance even when boosted, because they include lots of antibodies that just won't stay around.

Still, the vaccines are extraordinarily effective at preventing death and the worst consequences from COVID. It remains that you don't want COVID, even when vaccinated, and it is still worse than the flu, but it's much less risky than before. But we will still need some non-pharmaceutical interventions, at least until we discover an actual cure.

Even with a 90% of population vaccinated we're likely to still have reasonably-large outbreaks. Not among the population as a whole, but starting with unvaccinated subpopulations.

Jacinda Ardern refuses to set a numerical target for vaccination: she wants all groups to have reasonable vaccine coverage before saying that NZ is safer. Also, I was talking to a physiotherapist from Alberta who made it to NZ, and he was unfamiliar with how hard the NZ lockdown actually is. We get takeaways on Wednesday, after two weeks, if all goes well...

Current 7-day Covid-19 cases per 100k

• Windsor-Essex County Health Unit 113.2
• City of Hamilton Public Health Services 84.3
• Chatham-Kent Public Health 48.0
• York Region Public Health 45.6
• Brant County Health Unit 40.6
• Peel Public Health 37.2
• Durham Region Health Department 35.9
• Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public Health 34.3
• Middlesex-London Health Unit 34.3
• Toronto Public Health 33.2

• Region of Waterloo Public Health and Emergency Services 27.0

• Algoma Public Health 9.6
• Lambton Public Health 8.4
• North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit 7.7
• Thunder Bay District Health Unit 7.3
• Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit 5.2
• Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit 3.7
• Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Public Health 2.8
• Northwestern Health Unit 2.3
• Renfrew County and District Health Unit 0.9
• Timiskaming Health Unit 0.0

• TOTAL ONTARIO 33.0

What has been happening down Windsor way?  Is it related to the border reopening?

[tomh009]

What has been happening down Windsor way?  Is it related to the border reopening?

I think it's simpler than that: look at the worst health units for vaccination rates, and then combine that with population density:

Public Health Unit / At least 1 dose / 2 doses
Haldimand-Norfolk 76% 70%
Porcupine 81% 72%
Chatham-Kent 78% 72%
Hamilton 80% 73%
Lambton 78% 73%
Renfrew County and District 79% 73%
Hastings and Prince Edward Counties 81% 73%
Timiskaming 80% 73%
Northwestern 82% 74%
Windsor-Essex County 81% 74%

Waterloo Region is now third-best at 87% and 80%, which is why our numbers are still fairly moderate.

[ijmorlan]

So, Ford and Elliott caved, and we're getting vaccine "passports" after all, even if they are not exactly prepared for it quite yet. This list looks much better now:

• Federal government
  
• Hospitals (employees) and ambulance services
  

• Air Canada, including passengers
  
• Porter Airlines, including passengers
  
• WestJet, including passengers
  
• Sun Life
  
• "Big Five" chartered banks
  
• Most universities and colleges
  

As a staff member of the University, I received an email which began:

Late last night, we received new instructions from the Ontario Government’s
Ministry of Colleges and Universities and the Chief Medical Officer of
Health that outline their direction to us for the fall term.
 
In particular, the government now requires that universities must implement
a mandatory proof of vaccination program by September 7 and that we can
relax some physical distancing measures in instructional spaces such as
classrooms and labs.

So looks like it should be all universities and colleges very soon. This is promising! A large population of students who probably don’t have a high fraction of dyed-in-the-wool vaccine denialists but for whom the task of getting vaccinated may feel less salient.

[ac3r]

This is the list of things that will require mandatory vaccination. No idea if this is all of them, but it's what I've found through the stickied /r/Ontario thread pertaining to this:

• Restaurants and bars (excluding outdoor patios, as well as delivery and takeout);
  
• Nightclubs (including outdoor areas of the establishment);
  
• Meeting and event spaces, such as banquet halls and conference/convention centres;
  
• Facilities used for sports and fitness activities and personal fitness training, such as gyms, fitness and recreational facilities with the exception of youth recreational sport;
  
• Sporting events;
  
• Casinos, bingo halls and gaming establishments;
  
• Concerts, music festivals, theatres and cinemas;
  
• Strip clubs, bathhouses and sex clubs;
  
• Racing venues (e.g., horse racing).
  

Additionally, all staff at Waterloo Region hospitals will be required to be vaccinated by October 12th or they will be put on unpaid leave until they get it or decide to resign: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener...-1.6161089. I'm unsure whether or not this will also apply to long term care or retirement homes in the region, but I would hope so.

They may add more locations that require vaccinations...I guess we'll have to wait and see. Perhaps, if any outbreaks occur in certain establishments (such as personal care, i.e. barbers, hair salons, estheticians), they could update the rules. There may or may not be individual essential and non-essential businesses making their own rules regarding this (so long as they do not violate them) which would be great, but we'll have to wait and see.

I expect an extreme backlash from this announcement from all the Covidiots out there - no doubt they'll be protesting and screaming and spitting in the faces of retail staff - but this should hopefully push more people to become vaccinated. In a lot of countries where this has been implemented, vaccination rates jumped up a little bit, with the exception of certain nations like Russia who I believe (don't quote me on this) backpedaled on the idea after people began to reject it.

[ijmorlan]

What about police? It is a violation of arrestees’ rights to be detained by unvaccinated people.

I’m not sure what to do about unvaccinated arrestees. I guess put them in a separate holding area from the vaccinated ones.

[tomh009]

What about police? It is a violation of arrestees’ rights to be detained by unvaccinated people.

I’m not sure what to do about unvaccinated arrestees. I guess put them in a separate holding area from the vaccinated ones.

Toronto is requiring all officers to be vaccinated. WRPS started collecting vaccination information last week:
https://www.therecord.com/news/waterloo-...icers.html

[Bjays93]

Apparently ontarios new modeling suggests this newest wave will be the worst one yet and we're over 80% eligible first doses. 

There needs to be a strategic readjustment

[panamaniac]

Apparently ontarios new modeling suggests this newest wave will be the worst one yet and we're over 80% eligible first doses. 

There needs to be a strategic readjustment

Will be, or could be under a worst-case scenario?

[JoeKW]

Worst one yet in terms of raw numbers of cases but I would expect the other numbers we care about will be much better (Hospitalizations, icus and death rates)

[danbrotherston]

Worst one yet in terms of raw numbers of cases but I would expect the other numbers we care about will be much better (Hospitalizations, icus and death rates)

There are more than enough unvaxxinated people to put hospitals and ICUs into dire straits even accounting for the adjusted demographics of unvaxxinated folks.

In fact, in some cases, ICUs are likely to be impacted more because middle age people are more likely to survive even if they need significant care, which means they will be staying in the ICU for longer.

But I digress a bit. No, I also care about number of cases. Contrary to popular opinion number of cases does matter, people being sick is bad, even if they don't end up in hospital. Obviously it's bad for people, it's bad for society which will see rapid spread, and if those aren't compelling, it's bad for the economy which will see reduced productivity from people being sick and also long term consequences of not well understood long COVID.

[tomh009]

Apparently ontarios new modeling suggests this newest wave will be the worst one yet and we're over 80% eligible first doses. 

There needs to be a strategic readjustment

Will be, or could be under a worst-case scenario?

The worst-case scenario would, yes, be worse than the previous waves. The vaccine passport is expected to be a significant mitigating factor, according to the people doing the modeling. They are also not yet accounting for the possibility of vaccinating the 5-11 cohort.

[danbrotherston]

Will be, or could be under a worst-case scenario?

The worst-case scenario would, yes, be worse than the previous waves. The vaccine passport is expected to be a significant mitigating factor, according to the people doing the modeling. They are also not yet accounting for the possibility of vaccinating the 5-11 cohort.

Vaccine passport is 3-4 weeks away from a meaningful implementation, which is then 2 weeks away from a full effect.

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2021-09-02

Waterloo Region reported 21 new cases for today (12.5% of the active cases) and one fewer for yesterday for 29; 155 new cases for the week (-7 from yesterday and +21 from last week), averaging 13.5% of active cases. 175 active cases, +17 in the last seven days.

Next testing report on Friday.

1,199 doses of vaccine administered, with a seven-day average at 1,289 (previous week was 1,490). 73.95% of total regional population vaccinated (+0.09% from yesterday, +0.53% over the past week), 68.17% fully vaccinated (+0.12% from yesterday, +1.02% over the past week).

Ontario reported 865 new cases today with a seven-day average of 728 (+27), compared to 646 a week ago. 681 recoveries and five deaths translated to a decrease of seven active cases and a new total of 6,031. +726 active cases and 20 deaths for the week. 27,293 tests with a positivity rate of 3.17%. The positivity rate is averaging 2.96% for the past seven days, compared to 2.81% for the preceding seven.

137 people in the ICU, +2 from yesterday and +10 over the past week. Total hospital population of 320, +18 for the week.

35,152 doses of vaccine administered yesterday, with a seven-day average at 31,772 (previous week was 37,763). 73.67% of total provincial population vaccinated (+0.11% from yesterday, +0.57% from 7 days ago), 67.82% fully vaccinated (+0.13% from yesterday, +0.95% from 7 days ago).

Cases/100K by region:

• 22 cases in Chatham-Kent: 20.8 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Brant: 16.9 per 100K
  
• 89 cases in Hamilton: 15.4 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Windsor-Essex: 12.3 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Eastern Ontario: 11.8 per 100K
  
• 51 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 9.4 per 100K
  
• 91 cases in York: 8.2 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph: 8.1 per 100K
  
• 104 cases in Peel: 7.5 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Niagara: 7.4 per 100K
  
• 7 cases in Huron Perth: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 27 cases in Middlesex-London: 6.7 per 100K
  
• 175 cases in Toronto: 6.0 per 100K
  
• 39 cases in Ottawa: 3.9 per 100K
  
• 23 cases in Waterloo: 3.7 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  
• 7 cases in Southwestern Ontario: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 19 cases in Halton: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Durham: 3.4 per 100K
  
• 4 cases in Grey Bruce: 2.5 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Northwestern: 2.3 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Lambton: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 3 cases in Kingston Frontenac: 1.5 per 100K
  
• 2 cases in Thunder Bay: 1.3 per 100K
  

[tomh009]

The worst-case scenario would, yes, be worse than the previous waves. The vaccine passport is expected to be a significant mitigating factor, according to the people doing the modeling. They are also not yet accounting for the possibility of vaccinating the 5-11 cohort.

Vaccine passport is 3-4 weeks away from a meaningful implementation, which is then 2 weeks away from a full effect.

The full impact is delayed, yes. But given that vaccine mandates at universities and health care, and the knowledge that the passport will be needed soon for indoor activities, we should start seeing (first shot) vaccination rates edging up. And even if paper certificate validation is a hassle and they can be forged, there will still be fewer unvaccinated people in those locations. So, I stand by my statement that it will mitigate the worst-case scenario.

[danbrotherston]

Vaccine passport is 3-4 weeks away from a meaningful implementation, which is then 2 weeks away from a full effect.

The full impact is delayed, yes. But given that vaccine mandates at universities and health care, and the knowledge that the passport will be needed soon for indoor activities, we should start seeing (first shot) vaccination rates edging up. And even if paper certificate validation is a hassle and they can be forged, there will still be fewer unvaccinated people in those locations. So, I stand by my statement that it will mitigate the worst-case scenario.

Fair enough.

It's only modeling anyway.