The COVID-19 pandemic

[danbrotherston]

Many lower-income people use Dollarama for their daily groceries so I think that would be essential. Unless we were to provide some kind of food delivery service to those people.

OK, not really directly about Covid, as such, but for anybody who has been following the American election and specifically the (bogus) controversy in Houston, the thought occurred to me: what could be more American than drive-thru voting? I don’t think even apple pie is nearly as specifically American…

Despite record high numbers and more deaths, Doug Ford will be loosening restrictions on gyms and restaurants. Fucking unbelievable: https://outline.com/YZ9guG

Not that I’ve envied Doug Ford, but I definitely don’t envy politicians trying to balance public health/death counts against the risks to the economy.

The problem is that they aren't a balance, instead they're positively correlated...an increase in the pandemic will hurt the economy, people will be afraid and uncertain. The only way to improve the economy is to improve health outcomes.

What it takes is courage and leadership...to know what you're doing is the right thing for both our health and the economy, and to inspire people to work with you on those actions.

I don't think we're seeing either of those from DoFo right now...and we've never seen it from Trump.

There are other aspects too, like not having an economy based on the increasingly precarious service work...but that's a much bigger issue than the pandemic. Although, related, Uber and Lyft managed to write themselves some pretty favourable legislation in the California election.

[jeffster]

WEDNESDAY 2020-11-04

Waterloo Region again reported 23 new cases for today (17.4% of the active cases).  136 new cases for the week (+15), averaging 17.9% of active cases (ugh). 140 active cases (+46 in the last seven days).

This is quite disconcerting, really. The number of active cases is creeping up -- 50% increase in the last week -- but on top of that, the new cases as a percentage of actives (which implies R0, or the infection rate) is also increasing. What has changed in the region?

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 987 new cases today with a seven-day average of 958 (+22). 945 recoveries and sixteen (!) deaths translated to an increase of 26 active cases, and a current total of 8,321, yet another record. +747 active cases for the week, and 74 deaths. 28,567 tests resulted in a 3.46% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 2.95% for the past seven days.

ICU patient count is up to 75 (+2) and the hospital population up to 357 (+55 over the past week).

• 408 cases in Toronto: 14.0 per 100K population
  
• 299 cases in Peel: 29.9 per 100K
  
• 85 cases in York: 7.8 per 100K
  
• 62 cases in Durham: 7.5 per 100K
  
• 48 cases in Ottawa: 4.8 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Halton: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Hamilton: 5.7 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Simcoe-Muskoka: 5.1 per 100K
  
• 20 cases in Waterloo: 3.1 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

People having parties. Wasn’t there a wedding that ended up with a whole bunch of infections?

Anyway, people are having large gatherings, and this is likely the cause.

[tomh009]

WEDNESDAY 2020-11-04

Waterloo Region again reported 23 new cases for today (17.4% of the active cases).  136 new cases for the week (+15), averaging 17.9% of active cases (ugh). 140 active cases (+46 in the last seven days).

This is quite disconcerting, really. The number of active cases is creeping up -- 50% increase in the last week -- but on top of that, the new cases as a percentage of actives (which implies R0, or the infection rate) is also increasing. What has changed in the region?

People having parties. Wasn’t there a wedding that ended up with a whole bunch of infections?

Anyway, people are having large gatherings, and this is likely the cause.

I suspect you are right: it's being spread in private settings more so than in public ones, where the rules mandate masks and distancing. And from that point of view, I could see relaxing some of those rules. But if relaxing the public-setting rules causes people to become even less vigilant at home and in private settings, then we have a recipe for disaster.

[danbrotherston]

People having parties. Wasn’t there a wedding that ended up with a whole bunch of infections?

Anyway, people are having large gatherings, and this is likely the cause.

I suspect you are right: it's being spread in private settings more so than in public ones, where the rules mandate masks and distancing. And from that point of view, I could see relaxing some of those rules. But if relaxing the public-setting rules causes people to become even less vigilant at home and in private settings, then we have a recipe for disaster.

You must also consider the ease of tracking...it's very easy to track transmissions that occurred at large long private events...

It's much harder to track transient public spaces.  Are restaurants even tracking customers right now?

[tomh009]

You must also consider the ease of tracking...it's very easy to track transmissions that occurred at large long private events...

It's much harder to track transient public spaces.  Are restaurants even tracking customers right now?

In theory they are. The few times we have gone to restaurants in the past few months we have had to provide contact information. Whether they actually use it or not is a whole different question.

[tomh009]

THURSDAY 2020-11-05

Waterloo Region reported 16 new cases for today (11.4% of the active cases).  139 new cases for the week (+3), averaging 17.5% of active cases (ugh). 148 active cases (+55 in the last seven days -- up by more than half).

Next testing report on Friday.

Ontario reported 998 new cases today with a seven-day average of 967 (+9). 948 recoveries and thirteen deaths translated to an increase of 37 active cases, and a current total of 8,358, yet another record. +680 active cases for the week, and 77 deaths. 35,754 tests resulted in a 2.79% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 2.97% for the past seven days.

ICU patient count is up to 86 (+11) and the hospital population up to 381 (+69 over the past week).

• 350 cases in Toronto: 12.0 per 100K population
  
• 269 cases in Peel: 26.9 per 100K
  
• 71 cases in York: 6.4 per 100K
  
• 45 cases in Ottawa: 4.5 per 100K
  
• 33 cases in Durham: 3.8 per 100K
  
• 47 cases in Halton: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 37 cases in Hamilton: 6.5 per 100K
  
• 17 cases in Waterloo: 2.8 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

[jeffster]

I suspect you are right: it's being spread in private settings more so than in public ones, where the rules mandate masks and distancing. And from that point of view, I could see relaxing some of those rules. But if relaxing the public-setting rules causes people to become even less vigilant at home and in private settings, then we have a recipe for disaster.

You must also consider the ease of tracking...it's very easy to track transmissions that occurred at large long private events...

It's much harder to track transient public spaces.  Are restaurants even tracking customers right now?

Every restaurant that I have been to is tracking customers. Name, Time In, Group Size and Phone Number.

I believe transmissions is coming from 2 main sources: large private gatherings, and community transmission -- no known source -- and this is from people that claim to have medical reasons not to wear a mask, getting people sick when out and about (such as a grocery store) because they were infected (and likely were unaware).

[jeffster]

• 17 cases in Waterloo: 2.8 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

I know you'll get to it, but RoW had 34 new cases today. Not a good sign.

I can confirm that this isn't from government buildings that are open to the public (like pools, community centres, arena's).

[danbrotherston]

[Acitta]

Documentary about the Waterloo branch of T&T Grocery and Covid-19.  First 100 Days

[jeffster]

[greybird]

Not that I’ve envied Doug Ford, but I definitely don’t envy politicians trying to balance public health/death counts against the risks to the economy.

The problem is that they aren't a balance, instead they're positively correlated...an increase in the pandemic will hurt the economy, people will be afraid and uncertain. The only way to improve the economy is to improve health outcomes.

What it takes is courage and leadership...to know what you're doing is the right thing for both our health and the economy, and to inspire people to work with you on those actions.

I don't think we're seeing either of those from DoFo right now...and we've never seen it from Trump.

There are other aspects too, like not having an economy based on the increasingly precarious service work...but that's a much bigger issue than the pandemic. Although, related, Uber and Lyft managed to write themselves some pretty favourable legislation in the California election.

Although we all hate to think of it, politicians may also factor popularity into their COVID-19 response decisions. Someone who loses their income due to a lockdown will blame the government in a way that somebody who gets COVID-19 due to an absence of a lockdown will not. (They'll more likely blame themselves for having contact with an infected person, or the infected person for having contact with them.)

[tomh009]

FRIDAY 2020-11-06

Waterloo Region reported 35 new cases for today (23.0% of the active cases!).  180 new cases for the week (+44), averaging 18.6% of active cases (ugh). 172 active cases (+75 in the last seven days).

An average of 1,153 tests per day for the past week with a positivity rate of 2.02% -- a long time since we have seen this over 2% in the region.

Ontario reported 1,003 new cases today with a seven-day average of 997 (+30). 949 recoveries and 14 deaths translated to an increase of 40 active cases, and a current total of 8,398, yet another record. +729 active cases for the week, and 82 deaths. 41,268 tests resulted in a 2.43% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.04% for the past seven days.

ICU patient count is flat at 86 (+0) and the hospital population down slightly at 380 (+66 over the past week).

• 300 cases in Toronto: 10.3 per 100K population
  
• 280 cases in Peel: 28.0 per 100K
  
• 125 cases in York: 11.4 per 100K
  
• 43 cases in Ottawa: 4.3 per 100K
  
• 41 cases in Halton: 6.0 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Hamilton: 5.5 per 100K
  
• 26 cases in Niagara: 5.6 per 100K
  
• 24 cases in Durham: 2.8 per 100K
  
• 34 cases in Waterloo: 5.1 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

[tomh009]

SATURDAY 2020-11-07

Waterloo Region reported 29 new cases for today (16.9% of the active cases!).  170 new cases for the week (-10), averaging 18.2% of active cases (ugh). 183 active cases (+79 in the last seven days).

Next testing report on Tuesday

Ontario reported 1,132 new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,014 (+17). 852 recoveries and 11 deaths translated to an increase of 269 active cases, and a current total of 8,667, yet another record. +790 active cases for the week, and 84 deaths. 39,165 tests resulted in a 2.89% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.11% for the past seven days.

ICU patient count is up slightly at 88 (+2) and the hospital population down at 384 (+64 over the past week).

• 336 cases in Toronto: 11.4 per 100K population
  
• 258 cases in Peel: 25.8 per 100K
  
• 114 cases in York: 10.5 per 100K
  
• 78 cases in Ottawa: 7.8 per 100K
  
• 64 cases in Halton: 9.9 per 100K
  
• 32 cases in Hamilton: 5.8 per 100K
  
• 31 cases in Niagara: 6.7 per 100K
  
• 30 cases in Durham: 3.5 per 100K
  
• 25 cases in Middlesex-London
  
• 36 cases in Waterloo: 5.2 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

[tomh009]

SUNDAY 2020-11-08

Waterloo Region reported 31 new cases for today (16.9% of the active cases!).  179 new cases for the week (+9), averaging 17.6% of active cases (ugh). 192 active cases (+77 in the last seven days).

Next testing report on Tuesday

Ontario reported 1,328 (!) new cases today with a seven-day average of 1,064 (+50). 877 recoveries and 13 deaths translated to an increase of 438 active cases, and a current total of 9,105, rapidly heading for the 10,000-case mark. +1,124 active cases for the week, and 88 deaths. 37,577 tests resulted in a 3.53% positivity rate. The positivity rate is averaging 3.24% for the past seven days.

ICU and overall hospital patient counts not reported today.

• 434 cases in Toronto: 15.0 per 100K population
  
• 385 cases in Peel: 25.7 per 100K
  
• 105 cases in York: 9.6 per 100K
  
• 71 cases in Ottawa: 7.1 per 100K
  
• 68 cases in Hamilton: 12.1 per 100K
  
• 56 cases in Durham: 6.7 per 100K
  
• 43 cases in Halton: 6.6 per 100K
  
• 21 cases in Niagara: 4.7 per 100K
  
• 22 cases in Windsor-Essex
  
• 23 cases in Waterloo: 3.5 per 100K (based on provincial reporting)
  

This is too depressing. I'll write up some thoughts tomorrow.